How accurate has GMP actually been?

GMP is an unregulated number with no accountability behind it. So we hold ours to account: for every IPO we track, we freeze the GMP-implied gain at the moment bidding closes, then compare it against the real listing price. The full record is below — including the misses.

No listed IPOs with a recorded GMP snapshot yet. This page fills in as issues we have tracked through bidding complete their listing.

How this is calculated

At the moment bidding closes we record the consensus GMP and convert it to an implied gain over the upper price band. After listing we record the actual listing price and gain. Error is actual minus implied, in percentage points. Nothing is back-filled or revised once a listing is recorded, and no IPO is excluded for making the numbers look bad.